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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW 2012 (артикул: 13182 27470)

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Дата выхода отчета: 28 Февраля 2013
География исследования: Россия
Период исследования: January 2012
Количество страниц: 12
Язык отчета: Русский и Английский
Способ предоставления: электронный

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       The trend of office premises absorption volumes excess over the new supply volumes remained relevant in the Moscow Region in 2012. The aggregate volume of introduced office areas reached approx 600 thous. sq.m in 2012, which was 3% less than the analogous index of the past year.
    Therefore, the aggregate volume of high-quality office premises amounted to about 11.9 mln. sq.m at the end of 2012.
    Business activity in the market of office rent and purchase was rather high during 2012, which, against serious reduction of delivery volumes, caused the decline of vacant premises level. At the end of 2012 the share of vacant premises constituted 8% in “A” class and 9-10% in “B”  class.
    All the incoming requests to Blackwood Company comprised of 56% requests for premises rent and 44% - for premises purchase.
    A high level of business activity during the whole 2012 together with the trend of new supply delivery volumes decline made it possible to state considerable growth of rental rates: by the results of 2012 the rental rates were 10-12% up.
    At the end of 2012 the rental rates varied from $550 to $1, 500 per sq.m. per year for “A” class office premises, from $300 to $1, 200 per sq.m. per year for “B+”, from $250 to $1, 000 per sq.m. per year in “B-” class (all the rates are indicated exclusive of VAT and OPEX).
    During 2012 the professional retail real estate supply of the Moscow Region increased by 258, 100 sq.m of the total area (133, 300 sq.m. of them were rentable area). This annual increase pace was minimal since 2004. The aggregate retail real estate supply volume amounted to 6.3 mln. sq.m of the total area at the end of 2012, the rentable area constituted 3.2 mln. sq.m. The provision of Moscow population with high-quality retail areas was at the level of 307 sq.m per 1, 000 residents.
    The delivered to the market retail centers included the first in Russia professional outlet center Outlet Village Belaya Dacha. The opening of a number of outlet centers, including the ones near Sheremetievo airport and near Vnukovo airport, was announced for 2013-2014. 19 large RECs with the aggregate area of more than 1.5 mln. sq.m were opened in 2012 in regions.
    Therefore, the concentration growth continued in the segment of household goods and appliances in 2012. Operating in the Russian market retail chains were actively struggling for buyers, offering new formats. The preservation of retail operators’ high activity made it possible to anticipate the retention of a minimal level of vacant areas of 1.5% for the most in-demand retail centers and retail streets.
    During 2012 the rental rates both for premises in retail centers and in the street retail segment displayed a stable growth, which by the results of the year constituted 10-15% for successful properties and premises of key retail corridors.
    The preservation of rather low new supply increase paces is expected in 2013. And against the background of retail operators’ announced high activity (both in terms of international chains’ entry to the Russian market and in terms of the chains’ presence expansion in regional cities) a further growth of rental rates and the retention of minimal indices of vacant areas may be forecasted.
    During 2012 two new hotels were opened in Moscow: the increase of new supply since the beginning of the year constituted 253 rooms. The opening of such projects as “Aquamarin III” and the hotel in “Moscow-City” MIBC was shifted for 2013. As the result, the new supply increase paces was minimal in 2012 since 2000, which was the consequence of developers’ and hotel operators’ activity decline in the crisis period of 2008-2009.
    The Moscow Government’s shares in a number of the hotels (“Budapest”, “Metropol”, “Swissotel”, “Radisson SAS Slavyanskaya”) were sold in 2012. The reconstruction aiming the increase of a class will in most likelihood be carried out in a number of hotels. Therefore, the supply increase will continue in the upper segment of the Moscow market in the short term.
    During 2012 the increase of new supply under international hotel operators’ management surpassed 1, 000 rooms in regional cities: the opening of  Tulip Inn Rosa Khutor, Park Inn by Radisson and the Radisson Blu Resort & Congress Center took place in Sochi and the opening of Ibis took place in Samara.
    The main trend of the hotel market of Moscow in 2012 was  considerable decline of new supply increase paces conditioned by developers’ activity decrease in the crisis period of 2008-2009. As the demand for accommodation was recovering and stabilizing, it caused double indices of RevPAR increase: by the results of the year the index increased by 11%.
    International players preserve high activity, the largest international companies continue aggressive regional expansion. As the hotel markets of million-plus cities are saturating, operators’ interest is shifting towards smaller cities: taking into account limited capacity of the market, those operators will be on velvet, whose properties will open earlier.

  • Подробное оглавление/содержание отчёта

    Содержание

    Summary……………….....……………...……………………………………………………………………………..3    3
    Office real estate.……….…...…………………………………………………………………………………………4    4
    Retail real estate……….…………………..………………………………………………………………………….7    7
    Hotels………………………...………………………………………………………………………………………….9    10

  • Перечень приложений

    All rights reserved. This report has been prepared for information purposes only. The data and information contained herein are the exclusive property of Blackwood Real

     

    Estate company. Reproduction of the report in total or in part is allowed only with a prior written permission of the Blackwood real estate company. Quoting is allowed with reference

     

    to the source.

     

    RESEARCH AND CONSULTING COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

     

    2012

     

    The trend of office premises absorption volumes excess over

     

    the new supply volumes remained relevant in the Moscow Region

     

    in 2012. The aggregate volume of introduced office areas

     

    reached approx 600 thous. sq.m in 2012, which was 3% less

     

    than the analogous index of the past year.

     

    Therefore, the aggregate volume of high-quality office premises

     

    amounted to about 11.9 mln. sq.m at the end of 2012.

     

    Business activity in the market of office rent and purchase

     

    was rather high during 2012, which, against serious reduction of

     

    delivery volumes, caused the decline of vacant premises level.

     

    At the end of 2012 the share of vacant premises constituted 8%

     

    in “A” class and 9-10% in “B” class.

     

    All the incoming requests to Blackwood Company comprised

     

    of 56% requests for premises rent and 44% - for premises purchase.

     

    A high level of business activity during the whole 2012 together

     

    with the trend of new supply delivery volumes decline

     

    made it possible to state considerable growth of rental rates: by

     

    the results of 2012 the rental rates were 10-12% up.

     

    At the end of 2012 the rental rates varied from $550 to $1,

     

    500 per sq.m. per year for “A” class office premises, from $300

     

    to $1, 200 per sq.m. per year for “B+”, from $250 to $1, 000 per

     

    sq.m. per year in “B-” class (all the rates are indicated exclusive

     

    of VAT and OPEX).

     

    During 2012 the professional retail real estate supply of the

     

    Moscow Region increased by 258, 100 sq.m of the total area

     

    (133, 300 sq.m. of them were rentable area). This annual increase

     

    pace was minimal since 2004. The aggregate retail real

     

    estate supply volume amounted to 6.3 mln. sq.m of the total

     

    area at the end of 2012, the rentable area constituted 3.2 mln.

     

    sq.m. The provision of Moscow population with high-quality retail

     

    areas was at the level of 307 sq.m per 1, 000 residents.

     

    The delivered to the market retail centers included the first in

     

    Russia professional outlet center Outlet Village Belaya Dacha.

     

    The opening of a number of outlet centers, including the ones

     

    near Sheremetievo airport and near Vnukovo airport, was announced

     

    for 2013-2014. 19 large RECs with the aggregate area

     

    of more than 1.5 mln. sq.m were opened in 2012 in regions.

     

    Therefore, the concentration growth continued in the segment

     

    of household goods and appliances in 2012. Operating in

     

    the Russian market retail chains were actively struggling for buyers,

     

    offering new formats. The preservation of retail operators’

     

    high activity made it possible to anticipate the retention of a minimal

     

    level of vacant areas of 1.5% for the most in-demand retail

     

    centers and retail streets.

     

    Summary

     

    During 2012 the rental rates both for premises in retail centers

     

    and in the street retail segment displayed a stable growth, which

     

    by the results of the year constituted 10-15% for successful properties

     

    and premises of key retail corridors.

     

    The preservation of rather low new supply increase paces is

     

    expected in 2013. And against the background of retail operators’

     

    announced high activity (both in terms of international chains’ entry

     

    to the Russian market and in terms of the chains’ presence

     

    expansion in regional cities) a further growth of rental rates and

     

    the retention of minimal indices of vacant areas may be forecasted.

     

    During 2012 two new hotels were opened in Moscow: the increase

     

    of new supply since the beginning of the year constituted

     

    253 rooms. The opening of such projects as “Aquamarin III” and

     

    the hotel in “Moscow-City” MIBC was shifted for 2013. As the result,

     

    the new supply increase paces was minimal in 2012 since

     

    2000, which was the consequence of developers’ and hotel operators’

     

    activity decline in the crisis period of 2008-2009.

     

    The Moscow Government’s shares in a number of the hotels

     

    (“Budapest”, “Metropol”, “Swissotel”, “Radisson SAS Slavyanskaya”)

     

    were sold in 2012. The reconstruction aiming the increase

     

    of a class will in most likelihood be carried out in a number of hotels.

     

    Therefore, the supply increase will continue in the upper segment

     

    of the Moscow market in the short term.

     

    During 2012 the increase of new supply under international

     

    hotel operators’ management surpassed 1, 000 rooms in regional

     

    cities: the opening of Tulip Inn Rosa Khutor, Park Inn by Radisson

     

    and the Radisson Blu Resort & Congress Center took place in

     

    Sochi and the opening of Ibis took place in Samara.

     

    The main trend of the hotel market of Moscow in 2012 was

     

    considerable decline of new supply increase paces conditioned by

     

    developers’ activity decrease in the crisis period of 2008-2009. As

     

    the demand for accommodation was recovering and stabilizing, it

     

    caused double indices of RevPAR increase: by the results of the

     

    year the index increased by 11%.

     

    International players preserve high activity, the largest international

     

    companies continue aggressive regional expansion. As the

     

    hotel markets of million-plus cities are saturating, operators’ interest

     

    is shifting towards smaller cities: taking into account limited

     

    capacity of the market, those operators will be on velvet, whose

     

    properties will open earlier.

     

    3

     

    COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

     

    OFFICE REAL ESTATE 2012

     

    RESEARCH AND CONSULTING DEPARTMENT In 2012 the trend of office premises absorption volumes

     

    excess over the new supply delivery was still relevant in the

     

    Moscow Region. The aggregate volume of introduced office

     

    premises in 2012 amounted to approx 600 thous. sq.m., which

     

    was 3% lower than the analogous index of the last year. The

     

    trend of annual decline of new supply volumes of office premises

     

    has been preserved during the whole post-crisis period.

     

    Thus, 11% less office premises were introduced in 2011 versus

     

    2010 (for comparison, the decline constituted 60% in 2010 versus

     

    2009). The descending trend of office supply increase was

     

    first of all conditioned by the all-Russian trend of announced

     

    commissioning terms shift, as well as still relevant practice of

     

    cancellation or reconsideration of investment contracts in Moscow.

     

    Therefore, the aggregate volume of high-quality office

     

    premises constituted 11.9 mln. sq.m. at the end of 2012.

     

    Business activity was rather high in the office rental and

     

    purchase market during the whole 2012, which, against a serious

     

    reduction of delivery volumes caused the decline of vacant

     

    premises level. At the end of 2012 the share of vacant premises

     

    amounted to 8% in “A” class and to 9-10% in “B” class.

     

    Upon the increase of office areas consumption paces in 2013

     

    the vacancy level will keep declining.

     

    Despite the introduction of restrictive policy for the new construction

     

    on the part of Moscow Mayor’s Office, a positive dynamics

     

    in the development market of office real estate together

     

    with a rather stable market situation and a high business activity

     

    served a basis for the further increase of office areas volume,

     

    the construction of which was announced for 2013.

     

    Besides, the resumption/reconstruction of several large

     

    projects was announced:

     

    Supply

     

    Dynamics of supply volumes, mln. sq.m.

     

    Source: Blackwood Company data

     

    ▪ “Hals-Development” acquired permission for the redevelopment

     

    of a factory territory in Khamovniki, a MFC is

     

    planned for construction (41 thous. sq.m. of office areas).

     

    ▪ “Ferro-stroy” GC unfrozen the construction project of BC

     

    Pallau-RB on the 1st km of the Rublevo-Uspenskoe highway;

     

    ▪ BIN Group will construct a MFC with apartments “Lotos”

     

    instead of a MFC with 90% of office premises in 2

     

    Odesskaya street, the office area has been reduced by 59

     

    thous. sq.m. (the total area—150 thous. sq.m.);

     

    ▪ BIN Group Project MFC “Oasis” in 5 Korovy Val (58,

     

    557 sq.m.);

     

    ▪ Avgur Estate will put into operation “A” class business

     

    center Wall Street in the center of Moscow in Q1 2013.

     

    In addition to the resumption of office properties construction,

     

    the implementation of which was unfrozen, many new projects

     

    were announced in 2012.

     

    The aggregate volume of office premises, the construction

     

    of which was announced in 2012, amounted to more than 1

     

    mln. sq.m., which exceeded the analogous index of the previous

     

    year by 14%.

     

    Developer/investor Name Address Total

     

    O1Properties Lighthouse 28 Valovaya 44,851 sq. m

     

    AFI Development Aquamarine III 22-24 Ozerkovskaya emb. 78,000 sq. m

     

    "Olympic Bowling –Center" MFC “Olympic Hall” 16 Olympiysky pr. 23, 107 sq. m

     

    Quorum Debt Management BC "Kubik" 4 Stroitelny boul., Krasnogorsk 18, 000 sq. m

     

    Hals Development BC SkyLight 39 Leningradsky prosp. 111, 000 sq. m

     

    Alcon Development Alkon 72 Leningradsky prosp. 102, 177 sq. m

     

    Several projects completed in 2012

     

    Source: Blackwood Company data

     

    4

     

    COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

     

    OFFICE REAL ESTATE 2012

     

    RESEARCH AND CONSULTING DEPARTMENT The total absorption volume of high-quality areas accounted

     

    for 1.5 mln. sq.m. for 2012.

     

    Tenants’ and buyers’ activity in the office real estate market

     

    of the Moscow Region was estimated at a high level in 2012.

     

    56% of all the incoming requests to Blackwood Company were

     

    accounted for the rent of premises and 44% - for the purchase.

     

    The leader in the demand structure for rent depending on

     

    the class of property in 2012 was “A” class (54%). 17% of the

     

    requests accounted for “B+”, 31% - for “B-” class.

     

    As far as the sale and purchase segment is concerned, the

     

    requests for the purchase of “A” class premises (41%) prevailed

     

    in 2012.

     

    The structure of demand for high-quality office premises by

     

    metric area went through a number of changes in 2012. If in the

     

    post-crisis period and in Q1 2012 small office premises (up to

     

    200 sq.m.) were of the highest demand, then in 2012 the demand

     

    re-distributed towards office premises of more than 500

     

    sq.m., the aggregate volume of requests for large units

     

    amounted to 58%.

     

    The structure of demand for the purchase of office premises

     

    by metric area had the similar distribution in 2012: the most indemand

     

    were the units of more than 501 sq.m., the aggregate

     

    volume of requests for the purchase - 70% of the total number

     

    of requests.

     

    The changes in the structure of demand both for rent and

     

    for the purchase of office premises, as well as permanently

     

    increasing market players’ business activity was indicative of

     

    the high-quality office market recovery to the level of pre-crisis

     

    years.

     

    The key trends of demand in the office real estate market in

     

    2012 were the following:

     

    • The market players’ high business activity;

     

    • The further growth of activity in the segment of properties

     

    under construction;

     

    • The further growth of the average rental area and the terms

     

    of agreements conclusion;

     

    • The recovery of investment demand: the market players’

     

    activity increase, involvement of new participants, return of

     

    foreign investors;

     

    • Enhancement of demand decentralization trend.

     

    Demand

     

    Structure of demand for office premises rent by class

     

    Structure of demand for office premises rent by metric

     

    area

     

    Structure of demand for office premises purchase by class

     

    Structure of demand for office premises purchase by metric

     

    area

     

    Source: incoming requests to Blackwood Company

     

    5

     

    COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET OVERVIEW

     

    OFFICE REAL ESTATE 2012

     

    RESEARCH AND CONSULTING DEPARTMENT Rental rates and selling prices

     

    Dynamics of average weighted by area rental rate of offices,

     

    $/sq.m. per year

     

    Source: Blackwood Company data

     

    High level of business activity during the whole 2012 together

     

    with the trend of new supply delivery paces decline

     

    made it possible to state a considerable growth of rental rates:

     

    by the results of 2012 the average rental rates gained 10-12%.

     

    The highest increase of rental rates were observed in modern

     

    high-quality properties, as well as in business centers within

     

    the Central business area, where the growth of high-quality

     

    supply deficit, facilitated by the restrictive policy of new properties

     

    construction, had an important impact on the price growth

     

    of the most liquid supply. And the differentiation of rental rate in

     

    each class depending on location, quality and occupancy level

     

    of each property has been enhancing.

     

    At the end of 2012, the rental rates varied from $550 to $1,

     

    500 per sq.m per year for “A” class properties, from $300 to $1,

     

    200 per sq.m per year for “B+” class properties, from $250 to

     

    $1, 000 per sq.m per year for “B-” class (all the rates are indicated

     

    exclusive of VAT and OPEX). The average rental rate

     

    amounted to $1, 000 in “A” class, to $720 in “B+” class, to $550

     

    per sq.m. per year in “B-” class. OPEX varied from $50 to $290

     

    per sq.m per year for “A” class properties, from $60 to $150 for

     

    “B+” class and from $50 to $120 for “B-” class.

     

    Landmark events and transactions in 2012

     

    The price situation in the sale and purchase segment of

     

    high-quality premises was the following: the price varied from

     

    $4, 700 to $27, 000 per sq.m for “A” class offices, from $4, 500

     

    to $20, 000 per sq.m for “B+” class and from $2, 000 to $15,

     

    000 per sq.m in “B-” class premises.

     

    On the whole, the price indices for the office premises in

     

    2012 remained rather stable. Despite the up trend of the market

     

    players’ business activity, the growth of price indices was rather

     

    gradual, which was indicative of malleability of demand for the

     

    office real estate by price. And the supply in some segments of

     

    the market has approached the pre-crisis level.

     

    Some transactions concluded in 2012

     

    Tenants’ and buyers’ activity in the office real estate market

     

    was estimated as high in 2012.

     

    The main players of the market were still the companies of

     

    materials and banking sectors, as well as state corporations.

     

    And the players of IT and retail sectors began to appear

     

    among other large players of the market. The largest transaction

     

    of 2012 was the rent of 90 thous. sq.m. by Rostelecom

     

    company in BP “Telecom-City”. Another large transaction was

     

    the rent of 24 thous. sq.m. by Evrazes in BC “Vivaldi Plaza”.

     

    Buyer/tenant Name Sold/leased area Address

     

    Sale

     

    "Stroygasconsulting” BC "Tower 2000" 15 000 sq.m 23A, Tarasa Shevchenko

     

    O1 Properties BC "Ducat Place III" 33 079 sq.m 6, Gasheka

     

    O1 Properties "Bolshevik" (factory) 55 000 sq.m 15, Leningradsky pr.

     

    BIN group MFC "Summit" 63 880 sq.m 22, Tverskaya

     

    MMC Norilsky Nikel BC in B.Tatarskaya 30 000 sq.m 11, B.Tatarskaya

     

    Sofaz Gallery Actor 18 000 sq.m 16, Tverskaya, bld. 1

     

    Rent

     

    GroupM BC "Legenda" 10 000 sq.m 2, Tsvetnoy boul., bld. 1

     

    GC “Novartis” BC "Alcon" 16 0000 sq.m 72, Lelingradsky pr.

     

    “Philip Morris Sales and Marketing” BC "Legenda" 9 000 sq.m 2, Tsvetnoy boul., bld. 1

     

    Household goods distributor BC Kubik 17 000 sq.m MKAD 65-66 km

     

    Evrazes BC Vivaldi Plaza 23 857 sq.m 2, Letnikovskaya str., bld. 1,2,3,4

     

    Rostelecom BC Telecom-City 90 000 sq.m Kievskoe highway, 2 km from

     

    MKAD

     

    Alfa-bank BC Pascal Nagatino i-Land 23 000 sq.m 18 Andropova, bld. 3

     

    Source: Blackwood Company data

     

    6

     

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